More and more each day people are finding it hard to trust the very things we all used to believe in. We used to trust those on the evening news. Nobody doubted for a second anything that came from the lips of Walter Cronkite as he told us the news each night. We trusted our national “experts” when they gave us information, and of course, we all believed the president when he spoke.
Today the bias is so apparent that you know the beliefs of the people who are speaking just by the channel you are watching. You know the position of the author by the website its on or the social media group that either pushes it in the searches, or chooses to fact check it repeatedly, even after it’s proven accurate beyond all doubt, never a retraction or an admission of wrongdoing.
I say all this because the markets are trying to figure out what and whom to believe. “Factual” statements by government officials declaring one fact after another proving to be wrong, often by the most senior officials, continue to sow the seeds of doubt as the market try to figure out how to process information. Is there really inflation? The president just said it was zero! He also signed a bill that will spend another $800 BILLION dollars. Making it close to FOUR TRILLION DOLLARS in additional spending in less than two years! But that isn’t inflationary because this latest bill is called “The Inflation Reduction Act” so it must be true! Just like “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor”. Just like “Inflation is just transitory”.
The bond market is on the verge of breaking through a very important level of 100.43 support to the downside. If we break lower, we could easily fall another 100bps or more! The unemployment claims numbers this morning could be very impactful, so keep your eyes open! Until the markets find their footing, we won’t know if the markets even believe in themselves now. You will have to be the one your clients and referral partners trust to give them honest and accurate information. You have to stay in the loop and be aware of market moving data until we can trust that the markets are clear on what they want to do next! If the payment and price work for the client, lock your deal!
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