We have talked about inflation and the fact you can’t fight the FED. More and more information show prices climbing, and the FED keeps buying and buying keeping rates low. They called it “transitory.” It was a supply chain issue and once everyone goes back to work, prices will return to “normal”. But today the FED had to acknowledge that indeed, inflation is real, and much hotter than they would like despite all their efforts. So, as it would be today, they admitted inflation is real but still clung to the “transitory” argument, at least for now.
Prior to the FED announcement, the 30yr MBS 2.5% coupon stood at 103.38 and up .02 on the day. Right after the word came out, that coupon was down 44bps at 102.92; and we closed down 59bps at 102.77. The 10yr was also on the move; before the announcement it was down .01 on the day at 1.4870. After, it moved higher to +6bps to 1.56; and closed at +8 for the day and 1.510. Some saw repricing quickly and expect those that did not, will certainly see it today. It is certainly worth watching, but before you panic, remember these numbers are the same levels we saw in early April, and we all survived, and there is a strong floor of support at 102.65. In any case, none of you should have been surprised or stuck with loans floating.
The good news is, and there is good news, mortgage applications were up last week by more than 4%, with purchases up by 2% and refinances up by 6%. Despite higher home prices, people are still hunting for a home and see ownership as a great value. The main reason could be rents are up 5.3% year over year; but 2% in May alone! Rents on SF detached properties were up by more than 7%! Which could be the reason that in places like my state of Florida, home ownership rates are at 68%!
Keep focused on the markets and your mission! The cost to shelter yourself and your family is going up, and many people are still seeing the value in BUYING that shelter. Rates are still great, and refinances still make sense for many people.
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