Conflicting stories, look at the data!
The markets often react on emotion and not in fact. Perception often creates and shapes reality, especially in the bond markets. You must be prepared to know what is happening and plan for the reactions, not forecast the outcome. Let’s look at just the past few weeks. Remember when tariffs drove the stock market down to 38,000 and people were rushing to sell to avoid losing more money? A few weeks later and the markets have recovered and is above 41,000? If you rushed to the emotion, you got buried, if you looked at the facts, it was a blip on the radar.
During the same time the bond market was bouncing around crazy and the 10-year treasury on 4/4 hit a low of 3.86% and the “experts” were calling this the beginning of another refinance boom; only to see a high of 4.59% just a week later and the same “experts” were talking about a collapse in the bond markets? Today we open at 4.31.
Just last week there was talk about a huge recession and no toys for Christmas, no trade deals were going to happen and the world wondered if China was going to be the new economic engine of the world? Well, yesterday the Fed chairman admitted he didn’t know how any of the trade issues would actually impact the markets until we saw what ACTUALLY takes place with tariffs and trade policy. Two major players in the markets revised their economic forecasts from negative growth for the second quarter to a 2%+ GAIN in GDP and the White House announced the first trade deal signing this morning and the there will be a meeting this weekend with the Chinese in Switzerland about a new trade deal.
So please, take a breath and remember that housing is essential. People must buy and sell just as new households are created, and people die every single day! Follow the plan, if the payment works, LOCK in the deal. You can always refinance if rates go lower, and if rates go higher, you have a great deal you can afford! Just follow the things that can move the markets and know that the markets will always be moving!
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