Some data in, more to come!

Uncategorized Jul 28, 2022

The FED raised short term rates by 75bps as expected and the mortgage bond market approved of the measure by closing up by 47bps today. This move was “leaked” last week and was just a formality of hearing the official word today. In Jerome Powell’s remarks he signaled there would be a “slower pace” of further increases, likely meaning he thinks dropping down to 50bps at the next meeting and seeing what things look like moving forward.

This is only half the story. Unemployment data and the first look at GDP numbers for the second quarter are this morning. Despite Janet Yellen’s repeated attempts to avoid the “R” word, it is likely we will have a negative growth number for the second quarter and that signals recession. Now, it’s only the Atlanta Fed forecasting a negative growth number and the official number will be only a first look this morning, but the fact remains, if we aren’t officially in a recession, you would have to admit the economy is in trouble! 

To make matters worse, it has been reported that Senator Joe Manchin has reached an agreement with Chuck Schumer to pass a bill that will raise taxes and increase spending by hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars on climate change solutions and other items. Which is exactly what you need to do during record inflation and an approaching recession is raise taxes and spend more money the government has to go out and borrow, NOT!

So, let's see where the numbers come in this morning and how the markets react to the data and the news of higher taxes and increases spending of borrowed money!

You just can’t make this stuff up!

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