I have made my career looking at information and trying to see how that information could be used to create positive outcomes. No matter how bad the circumstance, however bleak things may seem; it has been about how does this set of facts lead us to a positive outcome or create a positive direction. The markets recently have been rocked with volatility and with social media always angling for clicks, the fastest way to a headline has always been negativity. What can make people fear the most, and they will click to see how much worse things can get! You see, most people respond more to fear than they do opportunity!
So, I have made it a point to look and access each situation as unique, while being surrounded common themes. Sort of the same way each market, branch, and individual fit into the national news, rates, or guidelines. You must blend it all, so it works into a positive outcome!
The FED raised rates to the surprise of absolutely nobody! The initial reaction was for mortgage rates to jump higher before settling down with little damage done. The FED forecast is to continue to move the short-term market higher and pressure inflation down, way down! So right now, we see imbalance in the yield curve but the anchor in the 30UST remains steady. The 1yr & 2yr UST are over 4%, the 7yr at 3.68% and the 10yr closed at 3.53%. The thoughts are that the markets will accept short term pain and look to see if the FED is serious. I don’t believe we will get a clearer picture until after the midterm elections. So, we have that to look forward to.
For now, we must look at the data and the data shows the average rate on a 30yr fixed rate mortgage since 1971 is 7.76%. The facts are we had rates well above 6% from 1974 to 2004, and then again from 2006 to 2008. All with average rates above or way above 6%. So why are 6% mortgage rates an issue now? Plenty of homes were sold in all of those years; and if housing was such a bad investment now, why would one out of every six deals be an investor purchase?
Just a few things to think about! A special shout out to my friend Barry Habib who took the time to chat with my client Megan Cloud out in Las Vegas and send me a video! I really appreciate the birthday wishes to my grandson Tyler. Barry and I go back to the original Sales Mastery Events and I respect all he has done for the industry as well as always having the time to share thoughts and his talents. If you haven’t looked at MBS Highway, you should really take some time to do so. I happen to be a charter member of MBS Highway and I pay my money every year because it is just that good! Take the path to positive, it is a much better journey!
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