With mortgage applications off by more than 20% year over year, many are feeling the pain. Many had thought that we were going to see a much stronger mortgage bond market by now and rates would have been slowly heading into the 5% range. I was one of those people. I still believe that rates will head lower as the Fed begins to realize that they have gone far enough in raising rates, some think too far, but after they raise rates again next week, we might get enough information in that will convince them that this move higher should be their last. I hope so! The next meeting will be in September and the repayment process on student loans will tighten economic activity a good bit all on their own. We don’t need a recession. That is, if we ever get a “new” definition of what a recession is!
Regardless of that, many originators and companies are trying to cope with lower volumes. Mergers will continue and some really good people will be losing jobs as many support staff will be let go. Some branches may have to merge, and some managers will be gone. Some companies will eliminate different programs and some layers of management. A few will reduce compensation and cut services. While others will close their doors, not being able to survive at all. The pain is real!
The good news to be found is that there is still strong desire for the consumer to buy homes, and the much-promoted housing bubble theory promoted by many on social media never happened. With building permits not living up to expectations, the demand for homes in MOST areas will remain strong and prices will continue to rise at a modest rate.
The next piece of good news is that as some struggle, others are available to grow market share and to find qualified people to round out their teams. Most will be taking a significant reduction in benefits, but a job for less money is better than no job at all! Focus on what you know is working! Keep connecting with people on a personal level and provide value and opportunities for your referral partners, as they will reward you for being there to support them. I see the last half of this year to be much stronger than last year. There will be more activity and less competition!
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